Beating Seasonal Weight Gain during the Holidays

Many of you reading this today are familiar with the idea of Seasonality when it comes to the stock market.

For those not familiar, markets have seasonal tendencies that often play out but not always. For example, November through January tends to be the most bullish consecutive three month period of the year.

Here is a chart from page 149 of the 2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac owned and edited by my pal Jeff Hirsch. Jeff is the bonafide ax of stock market seasonality.

On a monthly basis and over the last 75 years, stocks average a 4.4% gain over this 3 month period. Not too shabby.

Further, it is when the market does not follow the seasonal tendency that we should really pay attention.

There are also seasonal tendencies when it comes to body weight and we are right now entering the most bullish period of the year for weight gain.

From Thanksgiving through New Years Day adults in the US tend to gain more weight than they gain for the entire year. 

Here is a chart I have posted before that was originally published by Helander et al in the New England Journal of Medicine that shows the seasonal weight change tendencies over the course of the year in the US, Japan, and Germany,

Notice, in the US, how weight gain begins to increase just before Thanksgiving and runs through Christmas and into the new year.

Similar to the market commentary above, personal weight change is the most meaningful when it does not follow seasonal tendencies.

In other words, if you can keep your body weight flat or even lose a little weight during this weight gain season, then you are really onto something!

So, here are some tips to buck this seasonal weight gain tendency. I first published this section in a post from a couple years back called The Seasonality of Weight Gain and I only edited it slightly...

Winners Average Losers

Legendary hedge fund manager, Paul Tudor Jones, once famously said, 

Losers average losers.

He was saying that losing investors buy more of a losing investment as it falls.

I’m turning that one upside down. 

When it comes to weight, we want to do the exact opposite.

We want to press losers!

So here are a few tactics that you can employ to counteract the weight gaining effects of the winter holidays?

Pick and choose. One or a few of them might help.

1. The Right Foot Rule

The Right Foot Rule says start the day super healthy. For me, this means 2 things.

1. Getting a run or a workout in before the festivities begin, and

2. Making sure the first thing you eat is healthy and satiating. This might mean having a bunch of eggs before the party or maybe you go in hard on the turkey before having anything else on Thanksgiving.

2. The Basmadjian Gambit

My pal Vic taught me this one.  

He tucks a bar of Lindt 90% Dark Chocolate into his jacket pocket before leaving for celebrations where he knows there will be decadent desserts.

Then, he eats a few pieces of the dark chocolate instead of going hog wild on pecan pie a la mode.

Simple genius.

3. Limit Drinking

I get it. Your relatives drive you to the bottle. Whatever.

Still, alcohol is not as cool as it used to be before we understood how bad even moderate usage over time is for our minds and bodies.

If you are still not aware, you can watch Huberman break it down chapter and verse.

If you can set a limit on how much you will consume, if any, and then stick to that limit, you will sidestep a load of empty and harmful calories.

If you can’t set a limit, well, that tells you something.

4. The Trosette Maneuver

Tro and Rosette are the low carb It Couple.

Tro is a doctor who lost 150 lbs and now helps people from all over the country lose weight and gain health, while Rosette has built a business with her sister selling low carb baking mixes that are pretty tasty.

The Pistachio Shortbread Mix is my personal favorite.

Together, I call them Trosette, like how we called Ben and Jennifer, Bennifer. lol!

They have a great hack that works for the holidays.

Tro says that if you haven’t beaten something yet, then replace it with versions that are less damaging. So if you’re going to eat dessert, have something with less sugar and less carbs.

Meanwhile, Rosette makes dessert mixes with less sugar and less carbs. Perfect complements!

Berries are also great, btw.

5. The Morning After Thrill

Make early plans for the morning after the holiday.

That way, you’ll have to set a bit of a limit for yourself on how hard you can go, because you know you have to wake up early. 

We’re planning to wake up early on Black Friday, head into the city, and visit the Met.

Generalizability

After you’ve used any of these tactics once, you can begin to apply the ones that work best for you in other situations.

I’m big on the Right Foot Rule. The first thing I eat pretty much everyday is a lot of high protein food. This keeps me out of trouble most days.

If you are able to not gain weight from Thanksgiving through New Years, you are setting a great precedent for 2025.

Have a great holiday everybody!